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class="mcnTextBlock" style="min-width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <tbody class="mcnTextBlockOuter"> <tr> <td valign="top" class="mcnTextBlockInner" style="padding-top: 9px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <!--[if mso]> <table align="left" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="width:100%;"> <tr> <![endif]--> <!--[if mso]> <td valign="top" width="600" style="width:600px;"> <![endif]--> <table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="max-width: 100%;min-width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;" width="100%" class="mcnTextContentContainer"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" class="mcnTextContent" style="padding-top: 0;padding-right: 18px;padding-bottom: 9px;padding-left: 18px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;word-break: break-word;color: #5b5b5b;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 14px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;"> <div style="text-align: center;">EDITION&nbsp; 5&nbsp; &nbsp; |&nbsp; &nbsp; FEBRUARY&nbsp;2019</div> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!--[if mso]> </td> <![endif]--> <!--[if mso]> </tr> </table> <![endif]--> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="mcnDividerBlock" style="min-width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;table-layout: fixed !important;"> <tbody class="mcnDividerBlockOuter"> <tr> <td class="mcnDividerBlockInner" style="min-width: 100%;padding: 18px 18px 32px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <table class="mcnDividerContent" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="min-width: 100%;border-top: 2px solid #EAEAEA;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <tbody><tr> <td style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <span></span> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- <td class="mcnDividerBlockInner" style="padding: 18px;"> <hr class="mcnDividerContent" style="border-bottom-color:none; border-left-color:none; border-right-color:none; border-bottom-width:0; border-left-width:0; border-right-width:0; margin-top:0; margin-right:0; margin-bottom:0; margin-left:0;" /> --> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="mcnImageBlock" style="min-width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <tbody class="mcnImageBlockOuter"> <tr> <td valign="top" style="padding: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;" class="mcnImageBlockInner"> <table align="left" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="mcnImageContentContainer" style="min-width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <tbody><tr> <td class="mcnImageContent" valign="top" style="padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0;padding-bottom: 0;text-align: center;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <img align="center" alt="" src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/4a5303e0-e90b-43fe-9fcf-b5fa1795ea92.jpg" width="600" style="max-width: 1200px;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline !important;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;" class="mcnImage"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="mcnTextBlock" style="min-width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <tbody class="mcnTextBlockOuter"> <tr> <td valign="top" class="mcnTextBlockInner" style="padding-top: 9px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <!--[if mso]> <table align="left" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="width:100%;"> <tr> <![endif]--> <!--[if mso]> <td valign="top" width="600" style="width:600px;"> <![endif]--> <table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="max-width: 100%;min-width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;" width="100%" class="mcnTextContentContainer"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" class="mcnTextContent" style="padding-top: 0;padding-right: 18px;padding-bottom: 9px;padding-left: 18px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;word-break: break-word;color: #5b5b5b;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 14px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;"> <br> <em>Volatility Risk </em> <h4 class="null" style="display: block;margin: 0;padding: 0;color: #949494;font-family: Georgia;font-size: 20px;font-style: italic;font-weight: normal;line-height: 125%;letter-spacing: normal;text-align: left;">One of the major risks facing an investor is volatility. Essentially this means that asset prices tend to fluctuate in value, with large and sometimes unpredictable swings, both upwards and downwards, over short periods of time.</h4> &nbsp;<br> The calculation of volatility is a complex and highly specialised field. Our focus is rather on understanding what is being measured so as to make sense of the data.<br> &nbsp; <ul> <li style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><em>The market itself </em>experiences volatility. As a general rule of thumb, price movements of more than 1% per day would indicate high levels of volatility.</li> <li style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><em>A specific share</em> would experience different returns over a period of several years. We refer to the variance of returns against the long term average as the <em>standard deviation</em>.</li> <li style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><em>A relative measure</em> of how the price of a security has historically moved (upwards or downwards) in comparison with the rest of the market is referred to as the <em>beta coefficient. </em>The market itself is neutral and has beta of 1 and individual securities may be assigned higher or lower values.</li> <li style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">The so-called <em>Volatility Index</em> (or VIX) measures the expected volatility (and hence the riskiness) of the market by examining the prices of option contracts which will be settled at a future date.</li> </ul> &nbsp;<br> <em>Market Concentration Risk</em><br> In a South African context, the situation is exacerbated by the fact that we have a high level of market concentration. A single company (Naspers) accounts for 22% of the market capitalisation of the JSE. The top five companies account for 50% and the top 10 companies for 65%. In addition, we are poorly diversified, with excessive exposure to media, resources and financial stocks and relatively modest exposure to industrial, healthcare and consumer goods.<br> &nbsp;<br> The following table illustrates how wildly the Naspers share price has fluctuated since the beginning of 2018.<br> <br> <img data-file-id="479089" height="297" src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/ad3f71ef-bb35-4029-91b4-7153a0a92501.png" style="border: 0px initial;width: 300px;height: 297px;margin: 0px;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;" width="300"><br> <br> Given that Naspers owns 31% of technology giant Tencent, it is hardly surprising that the fortunes of these two companies are so closely correlated. A combination of worse than expected results from Tencent, regulatory uncertainty and tensions arising from the renegotiation of USA china trade treaties have made for a roller coaster ride in the Naspers share price, as illustrated above.&nbsp;<br> &nbsp;<br> <em>Geopolitics and Current Sentiment</em><br> Geopolitics is the study of how a country’s geographic location, economy, population demographics and its relative size affects both political behavior and foreign policy. &nbsp;Geopolitical events impact on currency flows, trade volumes, fiscal and monetary policy and investor sentiment.<br> &nbsp;<br> Alexandre Dumas wrote <em>The Count of Monte Christo</em> in 1844.&nbsp; The book contains an early reference to “fake news”, in this case the threat of an impending revolution in Spain. French investors were driven to panic selling of Spanish bonds and lost large amounts in the ensuing rout.&nbsp; Once the folly was exposed, prices quickly recovered.<br> &nbsp;<br> In his book <em>The Age of Capitalism</em>, former Fed. Chair Alan Greenspan explains that the world economic system is based on capitalism, which is a powerful force in the regeneration of the economy notwithstanding the influence of geopolitics.<br> &nbsp;<br> To test this hypothesis, we list below some of the key geo-political events over the past 50 years and we measure the forces of capitalism over that period by considering the performance of the US Stock Market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over that period.<br> &nbsp;<br> In the 1940s the attack on Pearl Harbor was the catalyst for the USA’s involvement in World War 2, which heralded price controls and shortages of consumer goods.&nbsp; After the war came the great recession, the Cold War and the rise of Soviet aggression.&nbsp; Yet, in 1946 the DJIA hit 200, which commentators regarded as “too high”.<br> &nbsp;<br> The 1950’s saw the Korean War&nbsp;and resultant high levels of taxation, industrial unrest which led to State seizure of steel mills, Russia’s emergence both as a nuclear power and the first country to launch an unmanned spacecraft, the Suez Canal crisis, further recession and the seizure of power by Fidel Castro. When in 1954 the Dow Jones index hit 300, this was generally considered to be excessive.<br> &nbsp;<br> The 1960’s was equally turbulent. The Berlin Wall was erected. Tensions escalated with the Soviet Union following the shooting down of a CIA spy plane. Then came the Cuban Missile crisis. First President Kennedy and then Martin Luther King were assassinated.&nbsp; The USA encountered unprecedented levels of racial tension and civil disobedience. In 1969 the Dow Jones index fell 22% from 952 to 744, but by the end of the decade had recovered to 839.&nbsp; In context, this was a respectable performance.<br> &nbsp;<br> If we jump to the 1980’s, interest rates hit record highs and the USA experienced its worst recession in 40 years.&nbsp; Record federal deficits were followed by slowing economic growth, the junk bond scandal and the legendary crash of 1987, when the Dow Jones fell 28% from 2567 to 1866. Yet by the end of the decade the index had more than recovered its losses to close at 2634.<br> &nbsp;<br> From the brief journey through time, it is clear that capitalism has survived in spite of all the very real geo-political issues. Coca-Cola still sold cokes even though the world had major issues to deal with. In spite of what is happening in the geo-political sphere, life goes on and and people will still require essential products and services.<br> &nbsp;<br> Individual companies are often on a cycle of reconditioning the less productive parts of their business. The effect of “capitalism coming to town” was evident with the advent of the London Olympic Games.&nbsp; The stadium and Olympic village were built in a part of the city that needed regeneration, but which today is a vibrant and successful micro economy.<br> &nbsp;<br> If our attention is focused on ensuring that we invest in companies that are or will be successful, then the geo-political news that is reported becomes background noise. Companies will continue to sell goods and services no matter what happens in geo-politics. We just need to make sure that you have the right ones. Capitalism is our world system and it is incredibly powerful.<br> &nbsp;<br> <em>The Importance of Following a Process </em><br> Our financial planning process is based on the concept of asset/liability matching, which means that funds are allocated to notional baskets or strategies for different investment terms. The time frame of the investment is so important.&nbsp; If it is for the long term you can ride the short term volatility that is caused by the “noise”.&nbsp;By making incremental changes over time we are able to manage short term liquidity whilst leaving the growth assets to generate the required returns.<br> &nbsp;<br> Within each strategy is a section of stocks or bonds, which is well diversified amongst the issuing entities; be these governments, public utilities or businesses; economic sectors and currencies. The focus is therefore on ensuring that you invest in the right counters at the correct values. There are people and teams that have an amazing ability to do this, and we therefore have mechanisms in place to find people with the requisite skills and teams both locally and internationally.<br> &nbsp;<br> The geo-politics issue is best handled at the level of the investment managers, who employ economists and strategists to assess the impact of current developments on the sustainability of corporate earnings They have the ability to filter out the noise and the hype and identify the red flags as they arise.<br> &nbsp;<br> Many of our clients are constantly bombarded by news media (news sites, newspapers and 24 hr. news channels). Meaningful events do not occur on a daily basis and therefore much of the content tends to be biased and sensationalist rather than objective and informative. Media houses thrive on conflict, scandal and fear mongering.&nbsp; As far as Brexit, the antics of Donald Trump, land expropriation, corruption and climate change are concerned, when all is said and done, much more will have been said than done! </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!--[if mso]> </td> <![endif]--> <!--[if mso]> </tr> </table> <![endif]--> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="mcnImageBlock" style="min-width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <tbody class="mcnImageBlockOuter"> <tr> <td valign="top" style="padding: 9px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;" class="mcnImageBlockInner"> <table align="left" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="mcnImageContentContainer" style="min-width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;mso-table-lspace: 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0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" class="mcnTextContent" style="padding: 18px;color: #F2F2F2;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 14px;font-weight: normal;text-align: center;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;word-break: break-word;line-height: 150%;"> From 1 March 2019 our address and landline numbers are as follows:<br> &nbsp;<br> 1 Nollsworth Park<br> Nollsworth Crescent<br> La Lucia Ridge, 4051<br> &nbsp;<br> Tel: 031&nbsp;350 4100 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!--[if gte mso 9]> </td> <![endif]--> <!--[if gte mso 9]> </tr> </table> <![endif]--> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></td> </tr> </table> <!--[if (gte mso 9)|(IE)]> </td> </tr> </table> <![endif]--> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" valign="top" id="templateFooter" data-template-container="" style="background:#333333 none no-repeat center/cover;mso-line-height-rule: 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